Friday, 18 October 2013

Are we heading towards 7200 ???

Nifty Daily Elliot Wave Count 


Nifty Elliot count from recent major Swing low




Nifty daily chart shows Elliot wave count from 4531 (DEC 2011 Low). Nifty is clearly impulsing as shown in daily chart. I have also attached my preferred count from recent low of 5120 (wave 2) in next hourly chart.  

Elliot wave suggests above 6202 (Check calculation in Hourly chart image) Nifty can target 6300-6320 range. If we are in (III) at no cost nifty should go below 5700 , alternatively if we are about the finish wave (I) then nifty should not go below 80% retrace level of 5120-XXXX (replace XXXX will be next top , targets market in hourly image).

If we are in wave (III) then potential target for it 

1.0000 6722.0000
1.2360 6963.1920
1.3820 7112.4040
1.5000 7233.0000
1.6180 7353.5960

 Off course all of this will not come in one shot :) , we will have retracement in between. 

Inverted Head and Shoulder.




I had discussed about this potential bullish head and shoulder patter in my Last post. Here we go, today we had breakout to this pattern. As per classical technical analysis immediate target for this pattern is 6400 and long term target is 7200 which is also 1.5 retrace level for wave III. 

So Plan your trade accordingly and fingers crossed for 7200 :) ... 

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Happy Trading. 


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7 comments:

  1. High Pattern Trading! negative divergence is visible, but needs confirmation from price action! if H&S pattern fails, it will be quite bearish, i remember recent failure of this pattern on BHEL chart. let us pray for the best on Nifty chart ! on fundamental level, may be the bottoming is done in Indian economy!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hello Parimal ,

      Agree, Failure in pattern will generate wild move...

      Thanks

      Delete
  2. Hi Pattern Trading,

    This is a good pattern being identified. However there are two things which make me a bit cautious:
    1. HNS or Inv. HNS should come at the end of the trend. In this case, this doesnot looks to be the case.
    2. Almost everyone is talking about pattern. This makes it a bit prone to failure

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hello Aly Bhai ,

      1] If you check out this bullish pattern it has started forming since bottom of 5120 .... so that satisfies your condition one ...
      2] Whether the pattern failed or not we will come to know using retrace level as mentioned in post If we are in Bullish (III) at no cost it should go below 5700 and if we are finishing (I) the it should hold 80 PER retrace level ...

      Any way if the pattern is failing we will get very wild move because failure in such huge bullish pattern will push market participants who are in wrong direction to run for money :) result .. Wild swing ... ..


      Hope i answer your query :)

      Regards,
      Sumit
      Lastly as of now this pattern is supported by bullish Elliot wave count ..

      Delete
  3. Hello Sumit, thanks for nice work. to support the bullish view: if Rajan can do some long-awaited reforms in banking sector!! for decades, there has been no positive step taken to upgrade the banking business. otherwise, on policy making from the central govt., nothing has improved! so the present upbeat move is very much liquidity driven.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hello Sumit
    So now we see that negative divergence on hrly as well as daily charts has failed the H&S pattern and the effect is obvious

    ReplyDelete